2025 NYC Mayoral. Let's do this.

Some thoughts on the upcoming Mayoral Primary (June 24, 2025) and General (November 4, 2025).

Below you’ll find so many more words than I sat down intending to write about the upcoming Mayoral Primary (June 24, 2025) and General (November 4, 2025). Offering in particular: some refreshers on our voting system (ranked choice, fusion voting, overview of parties), which are important to understand–but not to bog us down; and some reflections on strategy as I see it. As always, this is for those it’s for and not for those it’s not. Important to note that I am not an expert, and just as important to note that none of us should need to be in order to understand our choices!

Thoughts here are always subject to change pending new information and/or loving correctives.

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TL;DR:

• DON’T RANK ANDREW CUOMO FOR MAYOR

• Fill out all 5 choices on your ballot! Don’t rank anyone you couldn’t stomach winning!

• My ranking as of mid-May:

  • #1: ZOHRAN MAMDANI

  • #2: Brad Lander

  • #3-5: Zellnor Myrie, Jessica Ramos, Adrienne Adams in any order

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PS All thoughts here are my own because I am not affiliated with any institutions! How fucking lovely!

PPS We’re gonna win this thing. Love ya!

A note on names: I’ve made a big point in the past about calling candidates by their last names, because non-man candidates are often called by their first names to imply some lesser seriousness. Here I sometimes call Zohran Mamdani by his first name, as it has become part of his brand.

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1) Ranked Choice Voting (RCV): I sort of get it but remind me how it works?

From The City:

“Instead of choosing only one favorite candidate, voters rank up to five candidates in each race.

If one candidate gets more than 50% of the first-place votes, that person wins. If no candidate reaches that majority, however, instead of an expensive run-off election between the top two vote-getters, the ranked-choice method sorts out the best-preferred candidate for the most people.

If your top pick has the fewest first-choice votes among all voters, that candidate is eliminated from the race, and all of those voters’ second-choice picks are counted up. That process continues, with one candidate removed each round, until one candidate has more than half of the first-place votes.”

Here’s a ridiculously helpful video from nycvotes–especially for the visual learners among us. In particular, this helps us understand why it’s so important to fill out all 5 lines on your ballot–or risk not having your vote count!

2) The benefits of RCV in challenging the Two Party stronghold on our elections:

From FairVote:

“The effects of alternative electoral systems such as Ranked Choice Voting on third-party and independent representation in the United States is a major topic of FairVote’s research. Although there are examples from abroad (for instance, the multi-winner use of RCV in the Australian Senate is thought to slightly increase the representation of minor parties (Bowler and Grofman, 2000), the unique two-party, candidate-centered system of the US makes extrapolating the overseas experience difficult.

While RCV might not increase the election of third party or independent candidates in the US, as candidates must clear a threshold of the total vote (a threshold that decreases the more candidates that are being elected), RCV allows supporters of third parties and minor candidates to sincerely rank their preferred candidate first without feeling like their votes are wasted (Lewyn, Michael (2012)). RCV also minimizes the spoiler effect of third party votes. Under RCV, third party and independent supporters can rank their most preferred party or candidate first. If their candidate is eliminated, their votes immediately transfer to their second choice preference. Third parties supporters are thus free to elect their favorite candidate with minimal chance that that support will spoil the election outcome (Bartholdi III and Orlin,1991, Bowler and Grofman, 2000).

Along with preventing spoilers, RCV may also help keep the major parties more accountable to the electorate. Candidates are incentivized to court a broader range of voters than they normally would, including asking for second and third choice rankings from minor-party supporters.”

[bold emphasis mine]

3) Lessons from the 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary

In 2021, Eric Adams won in the EIGHTH ROUND of Ranked Choice Voting. In the first round, Adams received 30.7% of the vote, well below the 50% threshold needed to win. This means Adams did not win by first-ranked votes alone: he was carried over the 50% threshold by a combination of 2-5 rankings.

This is another reason why it’s so important to fill out all 5 spots on your ballot AND to only rank people you want to see/could stomach winning*. In addition to evaluating proposed platform alignment, this may help explain why the Working Families Party chose to endorse 4 candidates (rather than 1 or 2), and why so many progressive candidates in particular are incentivized to stay in the race through the end–despite poll numbers showing little shot for most candidates who aren’t Cuomo or Mamdani. More progressives in the race under RCV can be a GOOD thing, especially given Cuomo’s hard-to-beat name recognition.

The takeaway: We need those 2-5 rankings just as much as we need 1s! I’m thinking of this as a helpful strategy for the less likely Zohran #1 voters in our lives (read: boomers) (but also #notallboomers–many of our elders are powerful voices for Zohran and they deserve that recognition). If you’ve got folks in your life who are just not going to rank Zohran #1, use your sway with them to aim for #2-5. If they’re just not going to rank Zohran at all, see if you can sway them not to rank Cuomo. If they’re set on ranking Cuomo, see if you can get them to drop him down to a lower ranking.

*Some proposed a strategy in 2021 of ranking Adams as “insurance against” Yang, for example. While the dynamics of the 2021 Primary were extremely different–including more centrists and fewer progressives in the Primary race–it backfired, and helped Adams win. Do not rank anyone you couldn’t stomach becoming Mayor. This has helped me see the number of rankable progressives staying in the Primary as a good thing: it allows us to fill out all 5 rankings on our ballots, which fortifies us against Cuomo, without having to sacrifice our principles or rely on the risky strategy of ranking an undesirable candidate to “protect against” another.

4) Where/who do we look to for ranking strategy? How do we not fuck this up?

Listen to the Working Families Party! I hear many people worried that WFP “hasn’t released a strategy on RCV yet” and I strongly disagree with that. RCV, still new to New York in the scheme of things, is a multi-layered front in terms of voter education: there’s a dozen candidates of relatively low name recognition; historically abysmal voter turnout to contend with (only 26% of eligible voters participated in the 2021 Primary at all); and a long 6 weeks of shifting complex dynamics ahead of us.

WFP (and others) have already given us some very clear first steps:

The DREAM NYC campaign: Don’t Rank Evil Andrew for Mayor.

What began as “Don’t Rank Eric or Andrew for Mayor” shifted when Adams elected to run only as an independent. A reminder that RCV is only used in municipal (city) primaries: Adams will not be on the June Primary ballot because he elected not to run as a Democrat, like the feckless coward he is, but he will appear on the November General Election ballot running as an independent.

BUT DON’T STOP THERE. In addition to NOT ranking Cuomo, we must all fill out all 5 spots on our ballot. This is just as important insurance against Cuomo as not ranking him.

I expect WFP and other progressive PACs to offer us more specific ranking strategy as the Primary approaches. If you’re asking me today, rank Zohran #1, Brad #2, and Zellnor Myrie, Adrienne Adams and Jessica Ramos in whatever order 3-5.

5) HOW is Cuomo polling so far ahead of everyone else?

In 2021, Andrew Yang and Eric Adams were polling way ahead of everyone else at this stage. Eric Adams ultimately won in the eighth round, and Andrew Yang’s final weeks’ gaffes and persistent unlikability eventually torpedoed him to fourth place. Polling is an imprecise tool–though a tool nonetheless–and it’s difficult to capture the complexity of choices available to the electorate under RCV (e.g. polls sometimes ask about your first choice candidate only; and because there are so many choices available, many of us don’t lock in our rankings until the very moment we vote). Cuomo, nepo baby former governor whose name is plastered on bridges and highways and shit, has name recognition head and shoulders above the rest without doing a thing. But his team seems to be resting heavy on that head start, just like Andrew Yang did in 2021. As Jacobin put it: “New York City’s mayoral race is in full swing. Yet the front-runner, disgraced former governor and champion of corporate interests Andrew Cuomo, is nowhere to be found.” It’s an arrogance that will benefit us (progressives). Not to mention, he is blatantly hiding from hordes of accusers–of sexual assault against him specifically; of victims of his COVID nursing home policy; of his readiness to capitulate to Trump. All this to say: let the polls poll.

6) What is fusion voting and how is it relevant to this race? What’s this whole thing about the Working Families Party running a placeholder candidate? Did Cuomo just start a new independent party?

A quick note on independent parties in New York: First, we do not have a “capital I” Independent Party. As of May 2024, there were four registered parties in New York: Democrat, Republican, Conservative, and Working Families Party. To run as a “small i” independent–meaning on a line outside these four parties–“candidates must petition [via nominating petitions] in order to have their names printed on the general election ballot.” Further, “The group of voters making the nomination may designate a name for themselves, provided the name is rendered in English and does not suggest similarity with an existing political party or a political organization that has already filed a nominating petition. Signature requirements vary according to the office being sought. Generally speaking, candidates must collect signatures equaling at least 5 percent of the total number of votes cast for governor within the political unit at the last gubernatorial election, or a fixed total established by statute, whichever is less” (ballotpedia).

From Protect Democracy:

“Fusion voting refers to a process that was once universal throughout the U.S. and still features prominently in several states: more than one political party nominates the same candidate on the ballot, allowing voters to support their preferred candidate — without having to support one of the two major parties. Typically, this means a minor party and major party “fuse” together to cross-nominate and support the same candidate. A candidate’s vote total is the sum of the votes they received on each of their nominating party’s lines.”

Historically, I’ve looked at fusion voting as an opportunity to build power of third parties like the Working Families Party, and in some cases to leverage that power to sway the Democratic establishment leftward (as Democrats need to broaden their coalitions by courting WFP endorsements and voters). Under two party hegemony, fusion voting offers us a way to participate in electoral politics, especially when faced with less than ideal candidates. As an obvious recent example, I voted for Kamala Harris–against everything in me and through sobs–on the WFP line. As devastating as it was to cast a vote for her at all, I simply would not have been able to bring myself to do it if I only had the choice to vote for her on the Democrat line. (As an aside, I have absolutely no more clarity on what the right choice, or the right choice for me, should’ve/could’ve been in the 2024 Presidential. It all feels as fucked up now as it did then). At the very least, I knew I was contributing towards the WFP reaching the minimum threshold needed to stay on the ballot in future elections.

Yet this Mayoral race has unique dynamics that threaten the two party, and specifically Democratic party, hegemony. A city with a supermajority of registered Democrats, it makes sense that Mayoral races are often (even typically) won in the Democratic Primary. For many reasons, that just won’t be true this year: “New York City is home to 3.3 million registered Democrats, 1.1 million independents and 558,778 Republicans. Though Democrats enjoy a major advantage, 220,346 more voters have enrolled as independents over the last eight years” (Politico); an untold number of us have remained or switched back to registered Democrats following the November 2024 Presidential for the express purpose of being able to vote in the upcoming Mayoral Democratic Primary (that’s me)—i.e. our registered party affiliation is not as strong a predictor of our potential voting patterns as it once was; Adams, once a Democrat if in name only, is running only as an independent (on the ballot name “Safe Streets, Affordable City” which will need to be shortened for the ballot by Adams’ team or by the BOE); Cuomo is running as both a Democrat and an independent (on the ballot name “Fight and Deliver”); and Curtis Sliwa, founder of the vigilante Guardian Angels, is somehow still out there running as a Republican, a party that has seen increased support in both NYC and NYS over the last few years. Further, Cuomo, Adams and Sliwa, who as of now are all expected to appear on the ballot in November’s General, will be vying for support of increasingly overlapping communities in order to form a winnable center-right coalition of voters. Their risk of cannibalization is high.

Especially interestingly to me, the WFP has elected to run a placeholder candidate: “That person, an attorney named Gowri Krishna, would potentially step aside after a party convention over the summer to make way for one of the WFP’s four endorsed mayoral candidates — City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, City Comptroller Brad Lander, Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani and State Sen. Zellnor Myrie — if none of them succeeds in the June Democratic Primary.” In other words, if none of the WFP’s 4 endorsed candidates win the Democratic Primary, one of them–presumably the highest vote earner of the 4–will still progress to the General in November. (One can assume that Cuomo made the recent move to additionally run as an independent as “insurance”—fearing, rightly, Zohran’s growing cultural and political power. This means that regardless of his performance in June’s primary, he’ll be on the ballot in November alongside Adams and a WFP candidate).

All of this to say: what happens in June’s Democratic Primary will be consequential, but won’t in and of itself determine the outcome of November’s General. If you’re asking me, this is all good news for progressives, who have an unprecedented opportunity to form a broad coalition of disillusioned (former/soon-to-be former) Democrats, working class folks of varying party affiliations and non-affiliations, and unlikely/never Primary voters–who represent a whopping 75% of eligible voters and whose power over the results of this Mayoral race should not be underestimated. It’s anyone’s game. And “anyone’s game” could be really good for our boy Zohran, especially if he succeeds in his trailblazing efforts to get some unlikely Primary voters to the polls on election day.

7) “Can Zohran really win?”

A question being asked but that I’m no longer asking. I don’t think Zohran can really win.

I believe he will.